Daily Murders in Mexico Fall 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Figures

The mean number of everyday homicides each month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that homicide data might not indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had over these months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the least figure of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Fierce cartel infighting, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an apparently sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

However, security experts warned that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for assessing the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could hide periods when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

But in spite of these actions, Mexico remains beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas said.