A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
